Local Election Prediction Wrapup

Darling, Election, Pasch, Wasserman

So .. on Monday, I wrote about the local elections .. let's see how my predictions panned out:  

  1. I was wrong that Sandy Pasch would beat Wadhwa by 20 points.  The beat-down was THIRTY points.  I think back to when Wadhwa called me about the blog, how incredulous he was when I told him he'd lose by a landslide, as if no one had told him that before.

  2. I predicted Wasserman would win by 2% .. looks like I got that flipped.  Alberta Darling won by 2%, who, as a Republican will remain in the minority in the State Senate, which means she'll be powerless once again.  Interesting that even in a Democratic tsunami election, a solid guy like Wasserman couldn't win .. that's what you get with gerrymandered districts.

  3. I predicted the Milwaukee County Sales Tax increase would fail by 10%.  I am flabbergasted I got this wrong, as the referendum passed by 2%. 

    Honestly, I'm stunned.  I really had the Milwaukee area as a populace with a tremendous anti-tax bias. 

    Clearly, there are two groups who voted for this.. First, those voters who think their tax burden is not too high, don't mind increasing it by $63M/year, and want to increase support for Parks, Transit, Emergency Medical Services and Cultural services .. I FULLY understand there are people out there like that, but I'd put them in the 1 out of 5 range.  And I'll salute the folks who voted for this on the basis of its merits: They want more money for parks, et. al., and they are OK paying more for it.  As I said, that IS a legit vote. 

    The second group of people are the voters who didn't understand what they were voting for, exactly.  The warnings that the referendum's wording was confusing was spot on .. They read "property tax relief" and said, hey, something for nothing, let's vote for that.   The referendum wording didn't mention the sales tax would COST $130m.  Just that it would save/lower the property tax by $67m.  It's extremely doubtful this group really knew they would be paying $63m in the end.

    Well, guess what, County Supervisors who pushed this:  You succeeded, through tomfoolery and confusing language.  You didn't go for a legitimate referendum, where people knew the costs.  You wanted "property tax relief" in the wording so you could fool people into giving up $63M more of their dollars in a shell game.  Congrats on gaining your victory through the ignorance of voters.  You spun the language and won the game.

  4. Speaking of something for nothing .. I predicted a 10+ point win for the City of Milwaukee's Sick Pay referendum.  Got that wrong, it won by a whopping 36%.  No surprise there.  Why should 9to5 stop there?  How about some other direct-legislation winners to benefit Milwaukee workers:  "Everyone gets a 50% raise!"  .. "All workers get a company car to drive!" ..  "Massage Mondays!" .. "Free Donut Fridays!" -- All of those would pass with HUGE margins too.

    Whoop .. We didn't have to wait long for that first lawsuit, challenging this referendum.

Make sure you read:

  1. Local Election Predictions
  2. WFB Scam Alert
  3. One less bad guy on WFB's streets!
  4. Silver Spring Blame Game
  5. Solicitors DO NEED PERMITS

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